No current open poitions/recommendations. Be sure to read the Dorsey, Wright commodity comment. Note that commodities (along with international equities) are the assets losses favored in the DWA "DALI" allocation model.
A few weeks ago, I noticed the NATURAL GAS chart beginning to base up and noted it as a low-risk way to play both commodities and an economic up rebound. With charts either extended or now on short-term sell signals, the natural gas play looks good.
BELOW, I have given an intermediate-term trade for natural gas. This is the type of trade that could best be managed using the option market.
22 June 2009
Natural Gas September
Buy two (2) contracts at 4.20 or better. Set initial stop at 3.50, a double-bottom. Take partial profit at 4.90, the bearish resistance line, and close remaining contract at 5.80, the price objective.
Below is a listing of the commodities I follow along with their short and long term trends.
1) The pull-back we have been waiting on the past month appears to be commencing. Six of the seven indexes gave PNF sell signals, the NY bullish percent reversed into Os and went below 70%, and the short-term indicators for the NYSE are on sell signals. Be sure to read the DWA comments on "DEFENSIVE" plays that should be employed in this type of environment.
2) So, where is the the Market headed? Tom Dorsey(DWA) don't address this question, but I will. There are three critical areas to watch: (1) 50-day EMAs; (2) Support Area (i.e. bullish support lines, Fibbonocci retracements; and (3) bearish price objectives.
30 The NASDAQ universe remains on OFFENSIVE and has much better technicals than the NYSE. The technology group contains many of the DWA "Favored" sectors, including: COMPUTERS, INTERNET, SEMI-CONDUCTORS, and SOFTWARE. Stocks here have not yet broken down and the current pull-back offers good entry points.
4) The Latin American BP is alos heading up as well. It remains the strongest component in the Emerging Markets.
5) Biomedical/Genetics sector stocks have been on the move. This week the sector moved from UNFAVORED to AVERAGE. Should this market decline really take hold it will be interesting to see how these stocks perform. Should the group continue to strengthen, this could be an indication of new market leadership down the road.
· Posted by admin
on September 26 2009 16:38:57 ·
582 Comments ·
46803 Reads ·
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