22 June 09Natural Gas September. Bought 1/2 position at 4.20 on this contra-trend trade. Set initial stop at 3.50. Take partial profits at 4.90 and close position at 5.80, the price target.
25 June 09 T-Bonds September. Bought a full position on the opening as a hedge against equities at 116.20. Se stop at 114.50. Take artial profit at 119 and close position at 125, the BRL and just below the bullish price objective.
25 June 09Japanese Yen September. Bought a full position on a pull-back to 104. Set initial stop at 101, a double-bottom and violation of support. Take partial profits at 107 and close at 114, the long-term price objective.
NOTE: Be sure to read the Dorsey, Wright comments on commodities. We have seen a pull-back in this sector to the middle of the 10-week trading bands. This is a good area to begin entering some long positions. this week we have concentrated on the financials. Going forward we will keep an eye on the precious metals, soybeans, sugar and coffee.
COMMENTS: 1) With the NY BP on defensive, equity positions should be reviewed and appropriate action taken. See the Dorsey, Wright report. One strategy (defensive) that does not look good here is selling calls. Both implied and actual volatility have driven down option premiums (in general) and this makes strategy problematic. It can still be employed, but only on a case-by-case basis.
2) The OTC universe has held up well, mainly due to the strength of the technology sector (and now also the biotechnology sector).
3) Defensive sectors in general, have been the better performers of late. Sam has been noting the strength in healthcare stocks in his notes the past few weeks. Of the 14 sector BPs in Xs (i.e. with demand in control) the theme is defense and technology (see below). In this type of market environment, in which debt is looked at unfavorably, tech stocks, with their low debt to equity positions and cash-rich balance sheets look very defensive.
DWA sector BPs in Xs
Biomedical Electric Utilities Drugs Internet Waste Mgt. Healthcare Protection/Safety Telecom Computers Software Financials Business Products Semiconductors Auto/Auto Parts
4) NOTE: Biomedical/Genetics sector is now favored. Any ideas here???
5) Read the DWA comments on "DALI" and the potential for International Equities to drop out of Level 1 (pg. 3-5).
6) Short-term indicators for both the NYSE and OTC markets are now on SELLS. Expect further market weakness over the next month.
7) Five of the seven market indexes tested their 50-day EMAs this week. Only the NASDAQ and NOX did not violate these levels. Currently, all the indexes are back above the next major area of support for the market. Violations of these areas would be bearish short-terms.
8) Breadth improved as the indexes tested the 50 EMA. This is a positive sign, and shows strong sponsorship in this critical area.
9)Likewise, money flow has remained net positive even as the indexes have struggled. This is a positive as well. Volume has slackened on the sell-off.
10) As noted earlier both implied and actual volatility have declined. This is indicative of short/intermediate-term tops.
11) The NASDAQ gave a RS Buy vs the DJX this week. Since the chart turned positive on 2/16/09, the NASDAQ has gained 15.5% versus a 1.91% gain in the DOW. Keep this in mind going forward.
12) Corporated bonds continue to look attractive.
29 June 09T-Bonds September. Took profits at 119. Maintain stop at 114.50 and close remaining contracts at 125.
· Posted by admin
on September 26 2009 17:36:11 ·
325 Comments ·
13053 Reads ·
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