Japanese Yen September. Raise stop from 101 to 102.50. Maintain target for partial profits: 107. Close position at 114.
NOTES ON COMMODITIES:
1) The commodity indexes I follow appear set to pull back on a short-term basis. Longer-term the technical picture is positive and this pull-back can be used to find set-ups for long positions. Commodities remain the emphasized asses class in the DWA DALI asset allocation model.
2) Interests look as if they have topped out for the time being. We saw some fight to quality buying drive Treasury Notes down this week. Note the long T-Bond trade in model portfolio.
3) Gold is poised for another rally. I will be looking for another trade set-up. I am less positive on platinum and silver.
4) Copper over-shot and is now normalizing. The news has China ending its stock-piling program. Aluminum, on the other hand, has based-up and is now rallying, up nearly 10% last month.
5) Oil looks "toppy". It is now in the high 60s, about 4% above its 200-day EMA (63.89). We should see some buyers come into the market as oil encounters this level.
6) Crude distillates, ie. heating oil and gasoline, are holding up better. Gasoline, in particular, looks good on its chart. The summer driving season could put further upward pressure on prices.
7) Natural gas has bottomed and is still losing.
8) Corn collapsed this week on the news of record acreage being planted. It has now violated all support areas on short and long-term charts. The charts call for $2/bushel - a level not seen for some time. Wheat is also weak.
9) The beneficiary of the presumed over-supply of corn is soybeans, which continues in an up-trend.
10) The "softs" are a mixed bag with coffee beginning to base up after a big decline: sugar skyrocketing, but now extended to support and still in an up-trend.
11) The pause it commodity prices can be linked to the US Dollar finding support after a 12% decline over the past two months. You would think that with interest rates declining the dollar might test with interest rates declining the dollar might test this support area. This is something to watch.
MARKET COMMENTS
1) I see this next month as a critical period for the stock market. After a nice rally off the March lows, stocks have bogged down. Risk indications, most notably the NY Bullish Percent, have indicated high risk warranting a defensive, wealth preservation posture. The various indexes are seeing their 50-day EMAs tested (repeatedly) and short-term PNF charts are flipping from buy to sell and then back to buy again. All in all, we are seeing a show of mixed signals.
2) What is undeniable is that fewer stocks are now on buy signals and the NY BP has reversed into Os from above 70% to below 70% (74 to 68). That dictates a defensive posture. This means selling stocks that break down and/or violate support. It also means taking profits in positions that are extended or have reached price objections. If you do not wish to liquidate positions, hedge them in some fashion. Option premiums are relatively low over-all so buying puts here is probably a better deal than selling calls. Still, this can be done on a case-by-case basis. (Continued on 7/10/09 comments).
· Posted by admin
on September 26 2009 20:28:29 ·
834 Comments ·
26520 Reads ·
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