Tommy's New Ideas
Posted by admin on October 04 2009 01:04:17
9.21.09 Mini S & P 500 DEC: I still like a long position here on a pullback to the middle of the trading band. We will tweak this recommendation by suggesting to buy two contracts on a pullback to 1030. Set the initial stop here at 990 (a double bottom "sell" signal). Take partial profits at 1080 and close position at 1130 (the bullish price objective). After establishing this long position look to scale into two more long contracts on reversal up the chart.
Highs/Lows: Comparing the 2007 market peak at 15,938 Dow Jones Total Market Index (The old Wilshire 5000) occurred on October 11, 2007. The current cycle high was reached September 23, 2009 at 11,162. The big difference here is the many more new lows seen during the 2007 period. All the ten days recorded double or triple digit new lows, while 2009 has seen only single digit new lows. The High/Low ratio is currently much stronger than it was in 2007. But the thing to watch for is performance of the high/low in the ensuing days...
RAX Rackspace Hosting, Inc. $18.00. RAX just reset with a new price objective of $31.00 and is trading near new highs reached. Would consider buying on pull-back in 15 to 16 area. Set a stop-loss pt. at 12.50 (bullish support line). According to info gleaned from Investor's Business Daily (IBD), RAX offers various types of managed hosting svcs. to businesses, support web sites, web-based IT systems and companines. Revenue and earnings also look good.
ARST Arc Sight, Inc. $22.77. ARST broke out fro a bullish triangle and spread triple-top on Sept. 1st at 21.00. Price objective is 27.5. Bullish support line is currently at 17. Again from IBDs information, ArcSight is a Cupertino, CA-based cyber-security company. Small-cap in size. Sells products designed to defend against fraud, theft of credit-card data, espionage and cyber attacks on critical infrastructure. Earnings are off the charts! Customers include businesses, Government and individuals; services garner repeat sales/contracts. I really like this company a lot. The correction or pullback now beiing experinced in general market may lead to opportunity to find leaders such as Rackspace and ArcSight at a better price and entry point.
Yesterday`s USA Today article on front page of Money section was helpful in putting into perspective speculation concerning "waiting for a pullback in new market rallies from troughs." Average of 12 cyclical lows was 64% gain and 2 yrs. duration, before the market yielded a meaningful 10% correciton. Continue to take advantage of these smaller pullbacks/pauses.
Mark Leboveit appeared on Nightly Business Report as guest monitor (VR Trader) and forecast:
DJIA:11,303
Gold:$1300/oz by 12.29.09
Silver:21/oz.
SLV iShares Silver Trust $15.74. Was one of his picks I also like. He was bullish and has an excellent track record.